Manitoba Occupational Forecasts

November 29, 2017

Economic Analysis & Research: Manitoba Government

Manitoba’s labour market conditions are unique, its economy is vibrant, and is strongly positioned to embrace the opportunities and tackle the challenges of the labour market of the future.

The Manitoba Labour Market Occupational Forecasts 2017 to 2023 (2.77 MB PDF) identifies expected trends for the labour market based on an occupation forecasting model that projects labour market demand and supply for Manitoba occupations at the one-digit National Occupational Classification (NOC) level.

The purpose of the report is to increase understanding of the state of the Manitoba labour market and the key issues involved in achieving its future labour market goals. The forecasts presented in the report are intended to facilitate workforce planning by government and stakeholders, and to promote awareness and discussion about the state of the labour markets and implications for industry and government initiatives.

 

Executive Summary

The Manitoba economy will see a total of 166,500 job openings between 2017 and 2023, with 68 per cent of these openings to replace worker retirements and deaths. The forecasts predict approximately 23,800 total job openings per year.

Manitoba’s economy will see 163,500 new workers join the labour force between 2017 and 2023, or approximately 23,400 workers a year. Manitoba’s unemployment rate is expected to decline by 0.3 percentage points between 2017 and 2023. After adjusting for inflation, Manitoba’s economy is expected to grow by an average of 1.5 per cent annually from 2017 to 2023.

Manitoba’s labour market is expected to lift hourly labour income by an average of 2.0 per cent annually over the next seven years. Over the same period, this is expected to push up personal incomes in Manitoba by an average of 3.2 per cent annually.

 

Total Labour Demand 

A total of 166,500 job openings will be created between 2017 and 2023. Expansion demand (new jobs due to economic growth) is forecasted to create 53,900 job openings (32 per cent of the total). Replacement demand (job openings from retirements and deaths) is forecasted to create 112,600 job openings (68 per cent of the total).

The occupation group with the most expected job openings is sales and service at 32,000 or 19.2 per cent of the total Manitoba job openings outlook. Job openings in business, finance and administration occupations are estimated at 27,400 or 16.5 per cent; and occupations in education, law and social, community and government services at 23,800 or 14.3 per cent.

Within the sales and service occupation group, the highest number of job openings is expected for the following sub-groups: cleaners, retail salespersons, and food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related occupations. For all occupation groups, replacement demand is more prominent than expansion demand over the forecast period. However, in occupations in Health and Sales and Service, expansion demand almost equals replacement demand.

With regard to educational requirements, of the 166,500 forecasted job openings over the seven-year period, approximately 62 per cent are forecasted to require some post-secondary education and training (ex: college, university, trade certification). The remaining 38 per cent may not necessitate post-secondary training or education, but may have occupation-specific or on-the-job training requirements.

 

Total Labour Supply

It is forecasted that there will be an additional 163,500 workers over the forecast period to offset the total labour demand. The additional supply is forecasted to consist of 92,500 new entrants, 38,000 net in-migrants and 33,000 net other in-mobility workers. With 163,500 workers joining the labour force and 112,600 people leaving due to retirements and deaths, the total labour force in Manitoba is projected to increase by 50,900 persons over the forecast period.

 

Gaps in Demand Versus Supply

Overall, Manitoba’s labour market is expected to remain balanced over the projection period, with the overall supply for labour adequate to meet labour demand. However, labour shortages or surpluses may exist for individual occupations and in some regions of the province. In each year from 2017 to 2023, labour supply exceeds labour demand by an average of 6,100 workers. While the gap is more significant in 2017 and 2018, with an average of 7,400, it closes to about 5,600 over the last five years of the forecast period, with supply estimated to outpace demand by 5,800 workers in 2023.

Over the forecast period, total labour demand growth will outpace total labour supply growth by 3,100 workers. The unemployment rate is expected to be highest in 2017 and then continue to decrease over the forecast period as labour demand grows slightly faster than supply from 2017 onward.